Zeke Hausfather, a current ERG student, led a comprehensive study on the accuracy of past and present climate models; the results revealed that these older climate models were actually considerably accurate at determining the rate and severity of global warming. Furthermore, this vital study highlighted a critical point that these older models were “accurately simulating the relationship between temperatures and greenhouse gases after all—it’s just that their assumptions about future carbon emissions didn’t match up with the emissions that were actually produced in the following years”.
“If you went back and reran that model with the actual levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and methane and chlorofluorocarbons, you would have gotten a value that was indistinguishable from the warming that we’ve actually observed,” Hausfather said.
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